A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
